Ecological interactions are important when considering the effects of climate change. When changing temperature and precipitation alter the climatic suitability for one species, it will affect any other species that depend on it.
In this study, researchers studied the potential effects of climate change on wild cherry and subsequent consequences for brown bear populations in the Cantabrian Mountains in northern Spain. With rising temperatures in the area, previous studies have shown that cherries have become an increasingly important part of the diet of brown bears in the recent years.
Based on field sampling, forest inventories, Google Street View inspections and GBIF-mediated data, the authors built an extensive database of wild cherry occurrences, which coupled with relevant climatic predictors formed the basis of a distribution model. To assess the extent of berry consumption and potential seed dispersal, they used georeferenced data on bear faeces collected through regional bear-monitoring projects and classified by cherry seed presence.
Their results showed that cherry habitat suitability was very sensitive to predictors related to water, especially soil water volume and seasonality of precipitation. Climate change was predicted to decrease overall habitat suitability, shifting climatic optimums in a south-eastern direction and towards higher elevations.
The models, however, also suggested high availability of cherries for Cantabrian brown bears regardless of climate change scenario. The analysis of seed-containing bear droppings also showed a potential for long-distance dispersal, which may facilitate the expansion of wild cherry to higher altitudes within both current and future bear ranges.